Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 20.006350 24.065553 28.550852 33.849098 39.909943 46.599842 54.514681
2025-05-25 13.367707 18.465892 24.712893 32.817788 42.932619 55.012570 70.391292
2025-06-01 9.941673 15.343549 22.519307 32.506860 45.778456 62.522185 84.919595
2025-06-08 7.373014 12.617806 20.116703 31.220155 46.786940 67.343130 95.969213
2025-06-15 6.138095 11.467142 19.567065 32.174901 50.612681 75.831296 112.035973
2025-06-22 4.774033 9.791810 17.921601 31.235436 51.539918 80.281052 122.767927
2025-06-29 4.116086 9.133755 17.704396 32.327793 55.382011 88.898266 139.569629
2025-07-06 3.108455 7.610039 15.812826 30.511511 54.603263 90.723103 146.746139
2025-07-13 2.728086 7.197551 15.744639 31.617823 58.369639 99.359325 164.081881
2025-07-20 2.377690 6.763056 15.559265 32.471523 61.743376 107.524833 181.032506
2025-07-27 2.121684 6.473887 15.594730 33.688357 65.755249 116.822818 200.023556
2025-08-03 1.860386 6.108185 15.419937 34.484592 69.078521 125.160961 217.846377
2025-08-10 1.508415 5.461495 14.652841 34.248666 70.882122 131.608648 233.761580
2025-08-17 1.157649 4.702755 13.522012 33.197698 71.207849 135.760894 246.440055
2025-08-24 0.923631 4.184268 12.817908 32.883385 72.789351 142.011699 262.671063
2025-08-31 0.689271 3.556403 11.717835 31.584647 72.393751 144.848265 273.430766
2025-09-07 0.595796 3.371894 11.680078 32.548311 76.348803 155.316693 297.115682
2025-09-14 0.450922 2.916686 10.834590 31.600070 76.479160 159.076606 309.736720
2025-09-21 0.394585 2.797353 10.884663 32.702627 80.755930 170.368910 335.461561
2025-09-28 0.275483 2.310934 9.759925 30.869348 78.893372 170.478376 342.059778
2025-10-05 0.241726 2.229047 9.841080 31.986035 83.231464 182.105063 368.955836
2025-10-12 0.207737 2.123170 9.823384 32.847693 87.075459 192.963395 394.853862
2025-10-19 0.183952 2.062695 9.943707 34.075798 91.779815 205.613097 424.295819